- The historic COP28 deal promises to move away from fossil fuels, to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees, for the first time in climate negotiations.
- The agreement talks about tripling renewable energy capacity and doubling energy efficiency by 2030 and repeats the COP27 call for a phase-out of unabated coal power.
- While the UAE Consensus, as the agreement is called, outlines actions, it faces criticism for weak language and insufficient finance commitment.
- Some parties recorded their objections, emphasising the need for equity, differentiated responsibilities and concrete financing in climate action.
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) Presidency of the 28th Conference of Parties (COP28) delivered an agreement calling on countries to “transition away” from fossil fuels and limit global warming to 1.5 degrees, making it the first ever to mention the phrase in 28 years of climate talks. “An agreement is only as good as its implementation,” said COP28 President Sultan Al Jaber during the closing session on December 13. “We must take steps necessary to turn this agreement into tangible actions.”
The document, which Al Jaber called the “UAE Consensus,” embodies the political messages of progress made so far under the Paris Agreement and future actions needed to stay on course to limit global warming to “well below” 2 degrees Celsius, and preferably 1.5 degrees Celsius.
Leaders and delegates congratulated the COP28 President for what many called a hopeful and milestone achievement. “This is a moment where multilateralism has actually come together and people have taken individual interests and attempted to define the common good,” said U.S. Special Envoy for Climate Change John Kerry during the closing plenary.
Indian Environment Minister Bhupender Yadav said the UAE Presidency made history on the first day of the COP28 when it operationalised a fund for climate-induced losses and damages. “India urges that the determination shown at COP is also substantiated with means to bring it to fruition,” he said on the floor of the plenary, adding, “This must be based on the principles of equity and climate justice, which is respectful of national circumstances and where developed countries take the lead based on their historical contributions.”
But the decision was hastily proposed after a full night of consultations with parties who were unhappy with previous iterations of the deal. Historical as the mention of fossil fuels is, the agreement lacks strong language to enable the transition to renewable energies and other systems equitably, say experts. “We see a litany of loopholes in this text that are concerning for us,” said Anne Rasmussen, lead negotiator of Samoa on behalf of the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), one of the party groups to most decisively call for a complete phase-out of fossil fuels.
The ‘UAE Consensus’
The “UAE Consensus” is essentially the outcome of the Global Stocktake (GST), the first such exercise assessing the implementation of the Paris Agreement. Its recommendations span actions across climate mitigation, adaptation and the “means of implementation” such as finance.
On emissions reductions, the agreement says countries should triple renewable energy capacity and double energy efficiency improvements by 2030, use technologies like carbon capture and storage in hard-to-abate sectors and “substantially reduce” emissions from non-carbon greenhouse gasses, such as methane, by 2030. It also repeated the need for a phase-down of unabated coal power from the COP27 last year and recommended a phase-out of inefficient fossil subsidies that “do not address energy poverty or just transitions.”
The possibility of a fossil fuel “phase out” making its way to the final text, dominated talks through the two-week summit, drawing sharp divisions between developed and developing countries on the terms of such a transition. While Saudi Arabia staunchly opposed any fossil fuel phase-out language, many developing countries pointed out insufficient finance and support from developed countries to back the ambition of a complete phase-out.
The global stocktake text went through six drafts before it was finally adopted with consensus on December 13, stating that countries should “transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems” to complement the achievement of global net-zero emissions by 2050.
“This text is very weak on the need for developed countries to provide adequate finance to support the energy transition, or transition away from fossil fuels,” Romain Ioualalen, global campaign manager of Oil Change International, an advocacy group, told Mongabay-India. “It is concerning because there is no real sense of how much money needs to be put on the table to finance the transition. It can’t be truly equitable unless that sense is there.”
Among the biggest loopholes in the celebrated decision to transition away from fossil fuels is that it “recognises that transitional fuels” – natural gas – “can play a role in facilitating the energy transition while ensuring energy security,” said Ulka Kelkar, Director, Climate at the World Resources Institute (WRI) India, adding that the text “appears to absolve developed countries of the responsibility of phasing out their fossil fuel use “in this critical decade.”
“Does the reference to “transitional fuels” give gas-producing countries the license to sell more gas rather than invest in renewable energy? For energy security, why not invest in renewable energy storage and grids rather than gas pipelines and terminals?” she said in a post on the social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter.
Not all parties were happy with the deal the COP28 President presented and recorded their objections. “We cannot support an outcome that moves the world into a new era of implementation of the UN Convention and its Paris Agreement without equity, common but differentiated responsibilities, differentiation between developed and developing countries, and without concrete financing and means of implementation for countries,” said Bolivia’s head of delegation, Diego Pacheco. “Developed countries have not agreed to take the initiative on climate action.”
Anne Rasmussen said AOSIS objected to the inclusion of transition fuels in the agreement, calling it “problematic.”
“The paragraph on abatement can be perceived in a way that underwrites future expansion. Phasing out ‘inefficient’ fossil fuel subsidies is problematic, creating loopholes that were not there before,” she said.
The agreement weak on adaptation and finance
While ambitious on climate action, experts say the deal falls short on offering developing countries reassurance on climate finance. Under the UN Convention, developed countries are obligated to “take the lead” in providing climate finance to support adaptation and mitigation in developing countries. The final deal “recalls” this obligation – a weak term that does not inspire confidence, according to experts.
“There’s nothing available within the system to support the actions and ambition proposed in the global stocktake,” said R. R. Rashmi, distinguished fellow and programme director of earth science and climate change at The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI).
Developed countries have failed to provide timely finance in the past. “The COP28’s failure to instate effective financial mechanisms, obliging historical emitters to contribute, jeopardises support for developing nations in meeting their nationally determined contributions,” Arunabha Ghosh, CEO of the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) said in a statement. “The urgency of the climate crisis demands immediate reforms be made to the COP process to ensure that accountability, implementation, and climate justice become central to all efforts. Otherwise, future COPs risk becoming obsolete,” he added.
Detailed conversations on finance are due to take place at the COP29 in Azerbaijan next year, where talks around a New Quantified Collective Goal on finance will be finalised, replacing the long-standing $100 billion target that developed countries have struggled to meet.
The COP28 also delivered on the Global Goal on Adaptation – a target comparable to the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement, which has been plagued by differences among parties. “It’s commendable that the Presidency was able to come up with a framework for this goal,” said Rashmi.
The Goal urges parties to make progress in seven key target areas by 2030, including reducing water scarcity, attaining climate-resilient food and agricultural systems, reducing climate impacts on biodiversity and health, increasing the resilience of infrastructure and human settlements, reducing the adverse effects of climate change on poverty eradication and livelihoods, and protecting cultural heritage from the impact of climate change.
This story was produced as part of the 2023 Climate Change Media Partnership, a journalism fellowship organised by Internews’ Earth Journalism Network and the Stanley Center for Peace and Security.
Banner image: Delegates during the Closing Plenary at the UN Climate Change Conference COP28 at Expo City Dubai on December 13, 2023, in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. Photo by COP28/Christophe Viseux/Flickr.