- New research ranks coastal villages in Goa’s Canacona taluka according to vulnerability to climate change.
- Tourist hubs of Agonda and Palolem were ranked most vulnerable both in the social and physical sphere.
- Research could assist in planning and policy decisions and could also be applied to the rest of Goa.
Canacona, Goa’s southernmost taluka, a district sub-division, has seen a tourism boom post the nineties, thanks to a congested North Goa. The former relatively untouched taluka is home to pristine, world-renowned beaches such as Palolem, Agonda, Patnem, and Galgibaga amongst other lesser-known picturesque and secluded beaches. The boom over the past few decades has led to unchecked development along its shores, including many structures which are illegal and unauthorised, with complaints of limited access and congested roads leading to the beaches. This comes at a time when rise in climate change-induced sea surface temperature (SST) as well as sea level rise (SLR) are making coastal areas vulnerable to cyclones, flooding and inundation.
A new study assesses the vulnerability of five coastal villages in Canacona through a modified Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) framework and finds the villages of Agonda and Nagercem-Chaudi highly vulnerable to climate change. Both the villages are tourist hotspots and house the renowned Agonda, Palolem and Patnem beaches respectively.
The study focuses on the villages of Cola, Agonda, Nagercem-Chaudi, Poinguinim, and Loliem, along the coast of Canacona. The first four have seen a tourism influx of late.
While a 2014 study classified Canacona as ‘low vulnerability’ due to the general presence of rocky cliffs, mesas, low population density, and fewer tourists, the present study revealed a heightened vulnerability, especially in the two villages.
This is particularly due to their low-lying topography, a high proportion of sandy beaches, and drastic land use change in the last two decades due to increased tourist activity.

Calculating climate vulnerability
“After a thorough literature review, we found limitations in the existing models to assess coastal vulnerability to apply at the village level,” said Ritwik Nigam, lead author of the study, in an email to Mongabay India. “Though there are numerous CVI models across the world (first developed in 1992), they primarily use 4-8 variables and generally ignore social variables or use them sparingly. This study incorporates a total of 21 different physical and socioeconomic variables, which can holistically assess coastal vulnerability at the village level, as the selection of the variables is very nuanced, and many have never been used before in CVI assessments worldwide.” The research team included the lead author Nigam along with Mahender Kotha of the School of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences (SEAOS), Goa University, Alvarinho J. Luis of the National Centre for Polar and Ocean Research, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Goa and other international collaborators.
The study incorporated ten physical variables and eleven socioeconomic variables. Each variable was given a score (0-1) where the higher the number, the greater the vulnerability associated with the variable. A weighted formula of the scores assigned was used to calculate the Physical Vulnerability Index (PVI) and Social Vulnerability Index (SVI). An addition of PVI and SVI resulted in the CVI.
The procedure was followed for each village.

Nigam mentions that factors such as the percentage of sandy coast, dune density, vegetation behind the beach, and plausible storm surge height were included for the first time to calculate CVI in India.
The study is also one of the first to include social variables in the index comprehensively.
“Incorporating social variables is crucial for developing effective disaster risk reduction strategies. Factors such as demographics, socioeconomic status, and social networks help identify vulnerable groups and tailor interventions for specific villages,” says Nigam. “This approach promotes community resilience, ultimately saving lives and reducing economic losses.”
Social and physical factors
Factors contributing to Nagercem-Chaudi’s vulnerability include degraded sand-dune density and vegetation. The village is an administrative headquarters with high population density, high settlement concentration within 500 m of the high tide line, and high tourist density. Besides being haphazardly developed, it is located between low-lying agricultural fields, leading to vulnerability far inland.
Agonda the second most vulnerable village showed similar characteristics.
“Canacona which used to be desolate has become congested, especially at Chaudi and Agonda,” says Tallulah D’silva a Goa-based conservation architect and co-founder of Plan for Goa, an advocacy group. She was not part of the study group. “The shacks and huts have replaced a vast stretch of vegetation on the beach, destabilized hill slopes, and have practically removed the barrier that protects the villages inland.”
Poinguinim, ranked third, has Rajbagh and Galgibaga beaches located in the village. While the village has fewer tourists than the former two, a new golf course has modified the beach’s morphology, says the study.
At Cola, a significant portion of the coast is cliffed making it the second least vulnerable in the study region. However, the village has recently had new seaside holiday resorts, notes the study. Loliem ranked as the least vulnerable village in Canacona.
“Outsiders who earlier settled at Palolem and Agonda now find the place congested and overpopulated and have begun to migrate to quieter places like Poinguinim,” D’silva told Mongabay, fearing that these areas may turn congested like the former two locations.
“When it comes to Cola which is on an elevation, it will be safe only if it remains intact,” she reflects. “Land use change and construction destabilise hill slopes. With climate change, we will have instances of extremely heavy rain in a single day. This increases the probability of landslides. All along the Canacona coast we have hills sloping right into the sea, bringing about another kind of vulnerability.”

Policy recommendations
“While the study is an eye-opener, dissemination of its findings is important,” says D’silva. “Presentations must be done to villagers, fishing communities, and farmers in low-lying areas followed by the panchayat and different departments of the governments. Then we can push for policy change.”
Policy changes should look at restricting land conversion, creating no-development zones, giving locals preference in decision-making, allocating land for disaster events, strictly maintaining coastal zones and rules, and incorporating disaster management plans at the panchayat level, D’silva said.
“There are multiple factors to keep in mind while planning these regions,” mentions Nigam, the author of the study, who has completed his Ph.D. at the School of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences (SEOAS), Goa University and is now an independent researcher. “These include protecting the region’s natural habitat, ensuring development is under coastal laws and geographical characteristics, sturdy roadways, and water infrastructure to support evacuation, avoiding encroachments and bottlenecks, and conducting carrying capacity assessments before developing the region as a tourist spot.”
Future research could benefit from a more comprehensive inclusion of cultural and historical factors, according to the study. “We need to identify vulnerable communities and look at alternative livelihood options, concludes D’silva. “How communities will be affected and adequate mitigation measures must be identified.”
Read more: The road to resilience is paved with mindful construction and design, say experts.
Banner image: Cabo de Rama, like some areas in Canacona taluka that have seen an influx of tourism, is generally on a height with hills sloping directly into the sea. Such slopes may be destabilised by infrastructure that have replaced vegetation. Image by Divya Kilikar/Mongabay.