- Rising incidents of winter forest fires in Kashmir are emerging as signs of shifting climate patterns across the Himalayan region.
- Warmer winters, erratic Western Disturbances, and declining snow cover are altering the region’s seasonal moisture cycle, experts say.
- This winter saw record warmth and the driest February in nearly a decade, leaving forests vulnerable to fires even before the usual spring season.
On a February evening, a blaze spread across the forested slopes of the Zabarwan mountains overlooking Srinagar, casting a faint glow along the ridges. For many residents, this sight of forests burning in the middle of winter was unsettling, and unusual.
Fires are now being reported in Kashmir in December and January, months that were once largely considered fire-free. Forest fires in Kashmir are typically associated with the warmer months when dry vegetation and rising temperatures fuel their spread. Winter, by contrast, has kept the forest damp with snow. However, there seems to be a shift in this pattern.
In recent months, forest fire incidents have been reported across several parts of Kashmir, from northern districts to central and southern forest belts. Satellite-based fire alerts and official records also suggest the problem is growing.
According to Irfan Rasool Wani, Chief Conservator of Forests, Kashmir, changing winter conditions are making forests more vulnerable to fires. “There has been a deficit in precipitation from around 2020 onwards,” he said. “Because of this, conditions are becoming increasingly favourable for winter fires.”
He explained that the winter months normally bring moisture that keeps forest floors damp.
“December to February is usually the period when we expect rainfall or snowfall. But when precipitation is low, the forest floor dries out,” he added. “Dry grass and accumulated leaf litter then become a medium for fire, and even a small spark, such as a cigarette butt, can trigger a blaze.”
A growing pattern of winter fires
Official forest department data show that 366 forest fire incidents were recorded across Kashmir between April 2025 and February 2026, affecting nearly 972 hectares of forest area.
During the winter months between December 2025 and February 2026, 48 forest fire incidents were reported across Kashmir, damaging nearly 100 hectares of forest area. This indicates that fires are now appearing outside their traditional seasonal window.
The Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change has identified Jammu and Kashmir as one of the major forest fire hotspots in the country, with more than 43,800 hectares of land affected by fires between November 2023 and June 2024.
While 188 incidents were recorded in 2022–2023, the number increased to 326 in 2023–2024 and 451 in 2024–2025.
The unusual timing of these fires, researchers say, may reflect broader climatic shifts in the region. According to Irfan Rashid, who studies climate variability in the Kashmir Himalaya, winters in the region are becoming warmer and drier.
“With less snowfall, the mountains store less water during winter, and soils begin to lose moisture much earlier,” he said. “At the same time, precipitation linked to Western Disturbances has become more erratic, bringing longer dry spells.”
Higher winter temperatures, he added, further dry out vegetation and forest litter, making landscapes more vulnerable to fires even by late winter.
A record dry and warm winter
Data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) shows that Jammu and Kashmir received about 65% less precipitation than normal between December 2025 and February 2026, with February alone recording an 89% deficit, leaving forests unusually dry for this time of year.
February 2026 was among the driest February on record across Jammu and Kashmir. Srinagar recorded just 5.3 mm of rainfall — the lowest total for the month since 1960 — while Jammu logged zero rainfall for only the second time in more than a century of records.
Faizan Arif, an independent weather forecaster, said the region has now recorded its seventh consecutive winter rainfall deficit. “Repeated shortfalls since 2019 suggest that winter precipitation in the region is becoming more erratic, with longer dry spells between active weather systems,” he added.
“With less snow cover, forest floors dry earlier than they traditionally would, making landscapes more vulnerable to fires even before the usual spring fire season begins,” Arif told Mongabay-India.
However, he noted that most forest fires in Kashmir are often linked to human activity. “Lightning is rare during winter; so many fires are likely triggered by practices such as burning dry vegetation or clearing land. What changing climate conditions are doing is making the forests dry enough for such fires to spread more easily.”
A recent climate study analysing long-term trends in Jammu and Kashmir found a measurable decline in snow water storage across several high-altitude districts, indicating weakening winter snow reserves. Researchers say these changes are altering the region’s winter moisture cycle and could have cascading effects on mountain ecosystems.
With over 21,387 square kilometres of forest cover in Jammu and Kashmir, even small shifts in forest fires can have significant ecological impact.
In January 2025, the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) issued a very high forest fire risk alert for Jammu and Kashmir. The advisory noted that Kashmir’s temperate evergreen forests — consisting of species such as deodar, kail, and fir — are typically less prone to fires due to their dense ground cover. However, prolonged dry conditions have significantly increased their vulnerability.
February 2026 also turned out to be the warmest February in nearly a decade for the Kashmir Valley, in terms of average maximum temperatures. The month saw a prolonged warm spell, with daytime temperatures rising 9 degrees Celsius to 11 degrees Celsius above the seasonal normal.
A regional shift in fire patterns
Across the western Himalayas, winter forest fires are becoming more frequent, pointing to broader shifts in climate patterns across the region.
Amit Kumar Verma, a senior scientist at the Forest Research Institute in Dehradun, said extreme weather events such as warmer winters and prolonged dry spells are beginning to alter the timing and intensity of forest fires. “Western Himalayas, including parts of Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, are increasingly observing this pattern,” he added.
A modelling study on forest fire susceptibility in Indian western Himalaya, found that the area highly susceptible to forest fires could shift or expand significantly in the coming decades under future climate scenarios.
According to Wani, while forest fires are a natural ecological process, climate variability is reshaping their frequency and intensity.
Beyond the immediate damage, forest fires can also have broader ecological consequences.
“When trees burn, they release carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, contributing to the greenhouse effect,” he said. “Fires can also destroy habitats used by wildlife, including birds’ nests and shelters for other animals.” In such cases, young plants and new species that may have been growing in the forest can also be destroyed.”
However, Wani noted that not all fires are entirely harmful. Natural, low intensity fires can sometimes benefit ecosystems by aiding nutrient cycling and seed dispersal.
But early season fires can disrupt this balance.
“When fires occur out of season, soils can lose their natural protection, dry out faster, and the regeneration cycle in spring can be disrupted,” he said.
Banner image: A study on forest fire susceptibility found that the area highly susceptible to forest fires in the western Himalayas could shift or expand significantly in the coming decades. Image courtesy of J&K Forest Department.
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