Given the sowing data and the possibility of persistent El Niño conditions, the Department of Economic Affairs (DEA), in its monthly economic review released on August 31, said particular attention may be required for pulses, oilseeds, rice and other rainfall-sensitive crops in the months ahead.
As per the review, kharif sowing stood at 105.67 million hectares as on August 21, around 1.5% below the corresponding period of last year. The decline was concentrated particularly in paddy, maize and soybean, while pulses acreage was marginally higher than a year earlier.
The gap in sowing has narrowed since August 7, when kharif sowing stood at 96.79 million hectares, 1.8% below the corresponding period of last year. Paddy acreage then stood at 34.48 million hectares, compared with 36.07 million hectares a year earlier.
Although the deficit had narrowed from the much larger shortfall observed earlier in the season, India Meteorological Department’s assessment indicates that the all-India cumulative rainfall deficit remained at 13% as of August 19.
Persistent regional deficits remain relevant for crop prospects and rural incomes, the review added.
Although the report said the relationship between El Niño and agricultural outcomes is not one-to-one, it identified the evolution of El Niño as an important emerging risk. The latest INCOIS Special El Niño Outlook Bulletin confirms that El Niño conditions had developed over the central Pacific by July 2026 and assigns an 80-98% probability that El Niño will remain the dominant ENSO phase from August 2026 through March 2027. The persistence of El Niño raises the risk of a weaker or uneven monsoon and, consequently, of pressure on crop yields and food prices.
The latest update by IMD, India’s weather agency, on August 31 has said, “Monthly rainfall over the country as a whole during September 2026 is most likely to be below normal.” The IMD said strong El Niño conditions are currently prevailing over the equatorial Pacific and are expected to strengthen further in the coming months.
It also highlighted uncertainty about the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which is currently neutral. A positive IOD can partly offset the adverse influence of El Niño on India’s monsoon rainfall.
India’s Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System expects neutral IOD conditions to persist through September. However, some international climate centres forecast a possible shift towards a positive IOD from September onward, the IMD said.
Banner image: The gap in sowing has narrowed, but persistent regional deficits remain relevant for crop prospects and rural incomes, according to the Department of Economic Affairs (DEA)’s latest review. Image by Kundan Pandey/Mongabay.