- From rainfall deficits to excess rainfall, unpredictable weather conditions in Kashmir are impacting the ecosystem including vegetation and animal behaviour.
- Accelerated glacier melting is a result of higher temperatures, which also impacts ecosystems and access to freshwater resources.
- Such disruptions could alter species composition, migration patterns, and habitats, according to experts.
The Kashmir valley has been experiencing changing patterns in precipitation and temperature due to climate change, which has been affecting the region’s ecosystem, according to a recent study. The region has been witnessing reduced precipitation in winters and higher temperatures during the summers. The study highlights the impact of these changes on Kashmir’s ecosystems.
“In Kashmir, accelerated glacier melting is a result of higher temperatures, which also impacts ecosystems and access to freshwater resources. Water scarcity, decreased agricultural water supply, and disruptions in the hydropower industry can all result from this. The risk of flooding and landslides might increase with higher precipitation and more severe rainstorm events. Flash floods and debris, caused by a combination of high rainfall and steep topography, can pose serious threats to communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems,” the study states.
The lead author of the study, Sana Rafi, is currently an assistant professor at the Department of Geography at Hemvati Nandan Bahuguna Garhwal University, Uttarakhand.
The study emphasised the potential of climate change to alter species composition and migration patterns, which in turn could impact ecosystem services and nature-based livelihoods. It warned how changes in temperatures could cause droughts or water logging, affecting agriculture and leading to food insecurity.
Threats to Kashmir’s water security
Rafi said during the research she found a trend in seasonal and monthly precipitation, alongside a rise in temperature. “There is a noticeable shift in rainfall patterns. For example, the amount of rainfall that used to be spread over two months is now concentrated in just 10 days. This increase in intensity leads to water logging and crop damage. Additionally, rising temperatures are accelerating glacier melting,” she told Mongabay India.
She also mentioned that changes in precipitation and temperature could cause problems with water management.
“Water storage, irrigation systems, and water allocation agreements between communities upstream and downstream can all be affected by variations in the amount and timing of snowmelt and runoff. Because of their remote location, poor infrastructure, and reliance on natural resources for survival, mountain communities are frequently more susceptible to the effects of climate change. Changes in temperature and precipitation have the potential to exacerbate existing problems such as those related to water, food security, and natural disasters,” she explained.
Sonam Lotus, former Director of the Meteorological Department in Kashmir stated that the valley experiences changing weather patterns each year.
“One year, we face a rainfall deficit, and the next, there is an excess of rain. These unpredictable weather conditions are a result of global climate change. This year, we are witnessing drought-like conditions in Kashmir due to reduced rainfall. Similarly, Jammu experienced weeks of dryness followed by intense rainfall, which led to flashfloods,” he said.Kashmir is currently facing an intense heat wave, with temperatures reaching unprecedented levels. On July 28, Srinagar recorded a high of 36.2 degrees Celsius, marking the hottest July day in 25 years. The previous record of 37 degrees Celsius was set on July 9, 1999. Additionally, the minimum temperature on the night of July 28-29 was 24.8 degrees Celsius, the second-highest in 132 years.
Faizan Arif, an independent weather forecaster in Kashmir, says that weak monsoon conditions in the region are resulting in a significant precipitation deficit in recent months. From June 1 to July 28, the region received only 161.8 mm of rainfall, far below the normal 243.9 mm, creating a 34% shortfall. According to Arif, Western Disturbances and monsoon winds have mostly bypassed Jammu and Kashmir this season.
Rising temperatures and drier weather
Akhtar H. Malik, a junior scientist at the University of Kashmir’s Department of Botany, highlighted the extensive impact of the ongoing dry weather. “Ninety percent of crops in hilly areas depend on rainfall. The dry conditions have severely impacted crop production, with water canals drying up. The humidity has also led to various diseases, causing leaves to desiccate,” Malik explained.
He recently visited Gurez area in northern Kashmir and observed the absence of certain moisture-indicating trees, a direct result of the region’s dry weather. “This is all due to climate change. If such conditions persist, many plant species may go extinct here,” he warned.
The lack of rainfall has also caused streams and rivers to run low, intensifying the already high temperatures. “The absence of rain, combined with sunny weather, is the main reason for these elevated temperatures,” he added.
Farooq Ahmad Wani, an apple grower from northern Kashmir’s Baramulla district, voiced concerns shared by many farmers in the valley.
“Over 50% of the apple trees in my eight kanals of orchard have withered due to the dry conditions and pest infestations this year. We depend on natural precipitation, and the lack of rain in June and July has significantly reduced our yield,” Wani said.
Shabir Ahmad, a researcher at Sher-e-Kashmir University of Agricultural Sciences and Technology Kashmir (SKUAST-K), stated that changes in precipitation and temperature patterns are having profound effects on ecosystems. “Warmer temperatures can disrupt the life cycles of plants that rely on specific temperature for growth and reproduction. The drought conditions can lead to decreased vegetation cover, altering habitats for various species,” he said. He added that some species may face extinction if they are unable to adapt to the rapid climate change.
To address the challenges brought on by these rising trends in temperature and precipitation variability in the Kashmir valley, the study emphasizes the need for adaptive measures and sustainable management techniques. “Improved water management, ecosystem restoration, disaster risk reduction, and the creation of climate-resilient livelihood plans for regional populations are a few examples of what this may include,” the study concluded.
Banner image: Representative image. Farming activity in Kashmir. Image by sandeepachetan.com travel photography via Flickr (CC BY-NC-ND 2.0).
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