Climate change and land use changes could significantly increase landslide susceptibility and risk across Karnataka’s Western Ghats by 2050, according to a new study published in Scientific Reports. The modelling study evaluates future landslide susceptibility and risk by incorporating projected changes in land use/land cover (LULC) and rainfall patterns under different climate scenarios.
The research covers around 45,000 square kilometres across seven districts of Karnataka, including Uttara Kannada, Kodagu, Chikkamagaluru and Shivamogga, a region that has recorded more than 1,200 rainfall-triggered landslides.
Unlike conventional assessments that assume landslide-causing factors remain constant over time, the researchers incorporated projected changes in rainfall and land use under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. Using machine learning, they combined these projections to identify future landslide hotspots and assess risks to people and infrastructure, making this one of the first future-oriented landslide assessments for the region.
The authors note that the intensity and frequency of fatal landslides in the Western Ghats are increasingly influenced by human-induced land use changes and climate change, making it essential to understand how these factors may evolve in the coming decades. They emphasise that susceptibility maps they developed identify areas most likely to experience landslides, while risk maps combine susceptibility with exposure to highlight locations where landslides could result in socioeconomic losses. Such assessments could inform infrastructure development, land use planning and disaster risk reduction.
The findings project a significant increase in rainfall intensity and urban development by 2050, leading to higher landslide susceptibility and risk across the study area. The greatest increases are expected along major transport corridors and densely populated parts of Uttara Kannada, Kodagu and Chikkamagaluru districts. According to the authors, the results demonstrate the combined influence of changing rainfall patterns and land use on future landslide hazards and provide valuable inputs for climate-resilient land use planning and disaster risk reduction strategies in the Western Ghats.
Banner image: A house left in ruins following a massive landslide in Wayanad, Kerala. Representative image by Divya Kilikar/Mongabay.
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