- The fertile alluvial soils of the Indo-Gangetic Plains have traditionally thrived due to predictable rainfall patterns and stable seasonal cycles.
- However, erratic rainfall intensified by climate change, is damaging agricultural crops.
- Researchers recommend mainstreaming climate resilience into agricultural policy and improving coordinated efforts from the government, local stakeholders and farmer organisations.
Mohsin Khan, a paddy farmer from Shamli, a district in western Uttar Pradesh famous for its rice production, knows he is facing a difficult year. As of September 1, the district had received only 20.2% of its average rainfall. “Without sufficient rain, growing paddy is impossible. My crops have shown stunted growth, and the quality is not up to the mark,” Khan says. Paddy farmers in other districts, such as Amroha, Gautam Buddh Nagar, Jaunpur, and Fatehpur, have also been impacted.

While Uttar Pradesh recorded 88.5% of its normal rainfall by early September, this figure masks a severe unevenness in distribution. Since June, more than half of the state’s districts have experienced below-normal rainfall. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), 37 of its 75 districts reported deficient rainfall, while seven received excess. Thirty one districts, primarily in central and eastern Uttar Pradesh, recorded normal precipitation. In western Uttar Pradesh, an agriculturally crucial rice-wheat-sugarcane belt, only two out of the 12 monsoon weeks brought normal rainfall, leaving farmers like Khan struggling to adapt to unpredictable conditions.
Erratic rainfall, however, is part of a broader crisis affecting the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP). “Climate change has altered weather patterns significantly in the IGP,” says Bhawna Ahuja, a researcher in the field of climate resilience and adaptation.
A recent study published in the Agricultural Economics Research Review paints a grim picture for this crucial agricultural region. By 2050, the yields of essential crops such as paddy, maize, and wheat in the IGP are projected to decrease by 24%, 10%, and 6% respectively, with more severe losses expected by 2080. Lead researcher Nalini Ranjan Kumar highlights the sector’s vulnerability, stating that agriculture in the region is “highly sensitive to climatic variations”. The study further emphasises the urgent need for adaptive strategies.
A changing agricultural landscape
Spanning northern India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Nepal, the IGP has long been a breadbasket, producing crops such as rice, wheat, maize, chickpea, and mustard, among others. The region’s fertile alluvial soils, fed by the Ganges and Indus rivers, have traditionally thrived due to predictable rainfall patterns and stable seasonal cycles.
For centuries, two major agricultural seasons defined the region — the kharif season, with monsoon-sown crops harvested in autumn, and the rabi season, when winter crops are sown in autumn and harvested in spring. However, climate change is rapidly disrupting this delicate balance. Shifting rainfall patterns, rising temperatures, and fluctuating water availability are directly impacting yields, threatening the agricultural foundation of the region.
“The most noticeable changes are the delayed monsoon arrivals and withdrawals, which upset the entire sowing and harvesting process. June and July, once reliable for rains, now experience below-normal rainfall, while August and September see excessive downpours. Heat waves exceeding 43°C in summer have also become more frequent and prolonged, damaging crops and making farming increasingly difficult,” says Athreya Shetty, an independent meteorologist.
This shift is particularly concerning in key agricultural regions like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Punjab, and Haryana, where drought-like conditions have become common over the years. “Rainfall, when it does occur, is highly localised and sporadic, leading to flooding in one area while another remains parched. This hyper-localised variability in rainfall marks a stark departure from the consistent patterns of the past,” adds Shetty.

The impact on crops is profound. According to Tamil Nadu Agricultural University’s agritech portal, high temperatures, even briefly, can stunt the growth of rabi crops like wheat by reducing shoot and root development. Unpredictable monsoon rains also threaten kharif crops. Droughts reduce soil moisture and prevent nutrient uptake, hampering crops like paddy and maize, while excessive rain causes waterlogging, damaging plant roots.
Water availability, critical for agriculture in the IGP, is also at risk. The region depends on both monsoon rains and irrigation from rivers, many of which are fed by the rapidly retreating Himalayan glaciers. In 2023, UN chief Antonio Guterres warned that “major Himalayan rivers like Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra will see their flows reduced as glaciers recede over the coming decades due to global warming”. This would create a severe irrigation crisis, exacerbating water scarcity in an already vulnerable region.
“Crops like paddy, which require substantial water, will be hardest hit by reduced irrigation. Rabi crops like wheat, which rely on stored soil moisture from the monsoon season, will also suffer,” says Nandan Pal, a paddy farmer in Amroha. As water resources dwindle, the risk of salinisation—where salts accumulate in the soil, reducing its fertility—rises. Areas with poor drainage are particularly vulnerable, and climate change will only worsen this issue.
But not all crops will fare equally under the changing climate. According to the study published in Agricultural Economics Research Review, while staple crops like rice, maize, and wheat are projected to see significant yield declines, other crops such as chickpea, rapeseed, mustard, and cotton may experience yield increases. By 2050 and 2080, chickpea yields could rise by 5.55% and 6.52%, rapeseed and mustard by 0.75% and 1.31%, and cotton by 3.69% and 5.44%.
The path forward
Experts, however, feel these gains will not compensate for the broader losses in staple crops. “Furthermore, future projections are alarming, with studies predicting up to a 50% reduction in monsoonal rainfall within a few decades, along with more frequent extreme weather events such as heat waves, droughts, and floods,” says Shetty.
To adapt, farmers in water-stressed areas will need to transition to drought-tolerant crops like millets, pulses, and sorghum, which are more resilient to erratic rainfall. “Promoting climate-resilient varieties of rice and wheat, which are more tolerant to heat and drought, is also crucial. Diversifying into horticulture can further reduce the vulnerability of farmers to climatic risks,” says Ahuja.

Mainstreaming climate resilience into agricultural policies is also essential for long-term sustainability. Coordinated efforts are needed between government agricultural programmes, local stakeholders, and farmer organisations. Additionally, strengthening Farmer Producer Organisations (FPOs) can help farmers collectively adopt climate-resilient practices, improve water management, and access financial resources, experts say.
“District-level adaptation plans should be developed to identify local needs and vulnerabilities, focusing on region-specific interventions. These plans must prioritise adaptation strategies that address both current climate challenges and future impacts of climate change,” adds Ahuja.
Read more: Deficient monsoon rainfall hits paddy farmers in parts of north India
Banner image: Mainstreaming climate resilience into agricultural policies is essential for long-term sustainability. Image by Jim via Flickr (CC BY-NC-ND 2.0).