The latest update to the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) Synthesis Report from the UN Climate Change secretariat shows that the global greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions curve is beginning to bend downward, but not quickly enough. Much faster action will be needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals, it says.
Issued on November 10 by Executive Secretary Simon Stiell, the update summarises new and revised national pledges submitted since the 2025 NDC Synthesis Report in October. In total, 113 Parties have communicated NDCs between January 2024 and November 9 2025, including 22 new submissions and one revision, together covering about 69% of 2019 global GHG emissions.
According to the analysis, total global GHG emissions including land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) are projected at 48.9 gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent in 2035, about 12% below 2019 levels. Without LULUCF, emissions are estimated at 49.4 gigatonnes, or roughly 7% lower.
For the 113 Parties with new NDCs, emissions in 2035 are expected to average 32.1 Gt CO2 eq. Full implementation of conditional targets could reduce this to 31.4 gigatonnes (-14 %), while implementing unconditional targets alone would mean GHG emissions reach 32.7 gigatonnes (-10%). These figures reflect the average and range implied by conditional and unconditional commitments.
The update marks a major change from pre-Paris trajectories. Before 2015, global emissions for 2035 were projected to rise by 20-48%. Current estimates instead suggest a 12% decline, illustrated in the report’s comparison of pre- and post-Paris trends. The baseline projections draw on IPCC Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) 4-6, 3-7 and 5-8.5 — scenarios with limited or no climate policies.
Global totals also include illustrative projections for sectors not covered by NDCs, such as international aviation and shipping, with LULUCF data harmonised to IPCC-assessed scenarios.
Countries contributing to the latest submissions include China, the European Union and its member states, Indonesia, South Africa, Türkiye, and several developing and small-island nations. Their pledges span major emitting sectors and align with long-term net-zero strategies.
The updated synthesis fulfils Article 4 requirements for five-yearly NDC communication and responds to COP21 and CMA 3 decisions for annual updates. The findings will guide deliberations at COP30 in Belém, where countries will assess collective progress and seek stronger global climate ambition.
Banner image: Opening of the 30th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP30) in the Brazilian Amazon. Image by UN Climate Change – Kiara Worth (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0).
Credits
