Where the wild dog can roam

Dholes survive in small, fragmented populations, having lost most of their historical range due to habitat loss, prey decline, and human pressures.
A new study has identified three major regions of potential dhole range but found that these regions are poorly connected, which could limit dispersal and genetic exchange.
Effective conservation requires improving corridors and cross-border cooperation, beyond protecting isolated forests.

Once found in the alpine, temperate, tropical, and subtropical forests across Asia, the dhole, or Asiatic wild dog, has now disappeared from much of its former range. Known for its high-pitched whistles, coordinated pack hunts, and remarkable endurance, this wide-ranging carnivore now survives in only small, fragmented populations due to habitat loss, prey decline, and increasing human pressures.

A recent large-scale study has now mapped suitable habitats where these elusive wild dogs could persist. It spanned 12 countries within the dhole’s known range, grouped into three regions: Mainland China, the Indian subcontinent (India, Nepal, Bhutan and Bangladesh), and Southeast Asia (Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia and Indonesia).

Researchers assessed which landscapes still provide the ecological conditions necessary for dholes. They then used MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy) modelling, a computational method, to predict habitat suitability using 24 environmental variables (such as climate, ecology, geophysical characteristics, and human impact), which are known to influence the distribution of large, wide-ranging carnivores. “MaxEnt finds the probability of distribution across the landscape that matches only such environmental conditions, thus predicting habitat suitability only where supported by provided environmental variables,” explains Monsoon Pokharel Khatiwada, corresponding author of the study and member of the IUCN Dhole Working Group.

The team compiled a dataset of 1,604 verified dhole observations recorded between 1996 and 2018. The data was provided by participants of a 2019 workshop co-organised by the IUCN Dhole Working Group, the IUCN Conservation Planning Specialist Group, the Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, Kasetsart University, and Thailand’s Khao Yai National Park. Because dholes are more often spotted in protected forests, the data was filtered using spatial software to ensure records were evenly spaced, reducing sampling bias.

Two models were then run: a coarse-scale model to identify broad regions of suitability, and a fine-scale model to zoom in on likely areas of dhole presence. Both were validated with independent datasets and statistical tests, showing strong predictive accuracy.

A recent study mapped suitable habitats in 12 countries within the known range of dholes, highlighted three primary regions: western India, central India, and across the Himalayan foothills through Southeast Asia. Image by gailhampshire via Flickr (CC BY 2.0).

Fractured forests

The models highlighted three primary regions of suitable dhole habitat: western India, central India, and across the Himalayan foothills through Southeast Asia.

Southeast Asia as a region was found to have the largest share of potential dhole habitat (56%). Among individual countries, India held the largest proportion of potential range. Meanwhile, Bhutan, Thailand, Cambodia, and Malaysia showed the highest relative probability of dhole presence within their habitats.

Khatiwada points out that some of this concentration may reflect better research effort rather than actual distribution. “Our observation data were more biased in these regions, and the provided environmental variables match the probability of distribution of dholes across these regions. The bias of observations could have been caused by field efforts being prioritised in areas where the species is most likely to be observed,” she says.

The study also found that legally protected forests were the strongest predictor of whether dholes can survive in an area, which means conservation efforts cannot rely only on isolated reserves. Corridors and surrounding landscapes need protection too if populations are to remain connected and viable.

“Simply knowing where the suitable habitat is for dholes alone is not sufficient for their conservation. Functional corridors and connectivity play a crucial role in their long-term survival,” says Khatiwada.

This broader landscape perspective is crucial, as the study found that remaining dhole habitats are poorly connected, limiting dispersal and genetic exchange. Maintaining connectivity is especially important for wide-ranging species like dholes. Without corridors linking forest patches, small populations become isolated, leading to inbreeding and increased vulnerability to disease or local extinction. Conservation strategies that only focus on protected areas may fail if surrounding landscapes cannot support movement and hunting.

“We suggest focusing conservation actions within each of these three regions, and on improving connectivity among dhole populations,” says Khatiwada.

Bandhavgarh Tiger Reserve, one of the protected areas in central India where dholes can be spotted. The study also found that legally protected forests were the strongest predictor of whether dholes can survive in an area, while corridors and surrounding landscapes kept populations connected and viable. Image by Swaroop Singha Roy via Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 4.0).

A call for regional cooperation

The global adult dhole population is estimated at just 4,500-10,500 individuals across South and Southeast Asia and parts of China, of which 1,000-2,000 are adult, mature individuals capable of reproducing.

Even in areas where suitable habitat remains, dholes face ongoing pressures. Forests continue to be cleared or altered for agriculture, roads, and urban expansion. “Increasing human population and the need of urbanisation are the main factors causing habitat loss, not only for dholes but for other wide-ranging species as well,” says Khatiwada.

Livestock grazing can also influence dhole movement and sometimes spark conflict with humans. Diseases from domestic dogs may spill over into wild packs, causing local declines. Even forests that appear intact may be functionally unsuitable if prey populations have been depleted.

Additionally, because dholes cross national borders, international collaboration is essential for long-term conservation. Khatiwada outlines practical priorities, “Initiate coordinated transboundary meetings, strengthen cross-border conservation initiatives, improve monitoring in the northern part of their historic range, focus conservation beyond protected areas, and work to improve functional corridors, connectivity, and bottlenecks among suitable habitats,” she says.